It’s happened again: The Earth rotated around the sun, Friends entered its “final" season and the Oscars have arrived to awe us jaded moviegoers with the light of knowledge, dazzle us with a spectrum of stars and irritate us with the annoying afterglow of politics. And once more, Silver Chips is here to enlighten you on who will leave one trophy richer and who will be left in Hollywood’s dust.

Best Actor

There was a time when Russell Crowe could star in a shampoo commercial and be nominated for an Academy Award. But those days are gone, and this year, Crowe’s seafaring shoes are filled by surprise nominee Johnny Depp for his scene-stealing swagger in Pirates of the Caribbean. Though his portrayal of Captain Jack Sparrow was one of the most innovative and charismatic of the year, Depp will go down in the face of the dramatic. Ben Kingsley is always an Academy favorite, but House of Sand and Fog was a mediocre movie that no one saw. Jude Law had less dialogue than most of the extras in Cold Mountain, and his performance was more about a disheveled appearance than acting. Bill Murray’s expertly understated midlife crisis in Lost in Translation was good for a Golden Globe, but Sean Penn as a father seeking to avenge his daughter’s murder in Mystic River was the most captivating performance of the year. Penn’s weather-worn features adapted perfectly to his character’s tough exterior, while his acting talent allowed his internal torment to shine through. This one’s no contest.

And the Oscar goes to… Sean Penn for Mystic River

Best Actress

The trend of surprise nominees continues in the Best Actress category, which features more fresh faces than in the last two years, namely because Nicole Kidman isn’t nominated. At age 13, Keisha Castle-Hughes is the youngest-ever nominee in this category, and although she gave a touching and precocious performance in Whale Rider, the hype for her has died. Diane Keaton generated a good buzz for her role in Something’s Gotta Give, but considering her character—an artistic women progressing through middle-age while clinging fiercely to her independence—this performance doesn’t seem like much of a stretch. In fact, Keaton’s veteran years will fall to the power of a good wig and some creative dentistry.

There’s something about beautiful women making themselves dowdy that appeals to the Oscar Powers That Be, and no one did a better job of that than Charlize Theron in Monster. Her bucktoothed, greasy-haired turn as a female serial killer was such a departure from the arm-candy blondes of Theron’s past that she’s going to shock the Academy into giving her an award, not undeservedly: It wasn’t only her appearance but her entire demeanor that was transformed.

And the Oscar goes to… Charlize Theron for Monster

Best Director

Anyone who says that Peter Jackson isn’t going to win this award is either a die-hard Clint Eastwood fanatic or still believes in the tooth fairy. Let’s look at the competition: Fernando Meirelles’ name is unpronounceable, and City of God received no other major nominations. The Academy is going to placate the fearsome wrath of Sofia Coppola (Lost in Translation) and her Godfather family by giving her a screenplay Oscar. This is the year of the epics with colons in their titles, and Lost in Translation just doesn’t measure up. Master and Commander is overhyped and pretentious, and Peter Weir has done much better (think Dead Poet’s Society). If Russell Crowe couldn’t pull an Oscar out of Master and Commander, no one can.

Admittedly, Clint Eastwood’s direction of Mystic River is masterful. He has a knack for positioning his camera in a way that captures the body language and facial expressions of his characters effortlessly. His blue-collar, blue-washed universe was artless and uncontrived, and in any other year this would be his award. But Peter Jackson deserves it. He knows it, the Academy knows it, your mailman knows it. The directorial achievement of the Lord of the Rings trilogy—shooting three three-hour movies at once, creating an entire fantasy world from scratch, directing a cast of thousands but maintaining a focus on the individual—is unparalleled. Mystic River is an actor’s movie and will be accordingly credited; Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King is an ensemble film, and in the middle of everything is Jackson, crafting his epic like a master storyteller from start to finish.

And the Oscar goes to… Peter Jackson for The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

Best Picture

When talking about this category, there is one word and two punctuation marks on everyone’s mind: Seabiscuit?! So many worthy independent films—The Magdalene Sisters, American Splendor—were passed over so that this Oscar-pandering, sloppily constructed movie could get a nomination that it’s hard to maintain perspective when talking about it. I mean, really, Seabiscuit?!

Luckily, it’s not going to matter much, because, like the Best Director category, Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King has this one in the wraps. A win for King is a massive reward for the entire trilogy, making up for the multiple Oscar snubs over the last two years and recognizing the sheer magnificence of the production. It’s a better, bigger, sweepinger epic than Master and Commander. Yes, it can be esoteric, but look up “esoteric" in the dictionary and you get Lost in Translation. Yes, the ending does drag on a bit, but so does the end of Mystic River. And by that time, the audience is so overwhelmed and emotionally exhausted from the amazing physical and personal journeys of Rings’ multiple characters that a better ending would just be sprinkles on the roses on the icing on the cake.

And the Oscar goes to… The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King

The 76th Academy Awards will air on Feb. 29 at 8:00 p.m. on ABC. For more information about the nominees and the show, check out the Academy’s official website at http://www.oscars.org.

Other predicted winners include:

Best Supporting Actor: Tim Robbins, Mystic River

Best Supporting Actress: Reneé Zellweger, Cold Mountain

Best Animated Film: Finding Nemo

Best Original Screenplay: Sofia Coppola, Lost in Translation

Best Adapted Screenplay: Brian Helgeland, Mystic River